The healthcare technology of the year: GLP-1s

Welcome to 2024 - the year the world will understand the potential of GLP1s like Wegovy or Mounjaro.

Yes, Novo Nordisk, the Danish maker of Ozempic & Wegovy has already become the most valuable company in Europe in 2023. But the power of these drugs goes way beyond cosmetic weight loss and diabetics. It has potential to have a bigger impact on the real economy in than A.I..

What is it?

Glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1s) are not necessarily new. They have been in use to treat diabetics for several years. And have been approved - with restrictions - to treat obesity in some countries since 2021. The drug works for weight loss by binding to the GLP-1 receptor, boosting the release of GLP-1 in the body. GLP-1 is a hormone that regulates appetite in the brain, providing the sensation of fullness that triggers our brain not to eat or stop eating.

By increasing the amount of GLP-1 released by the body, Wegovy increases the sensation of fullness. It also slows gastric emptying, thus slowing the food digestion process in the stomach. 

IT IS MASSIVE!

With the indication for weight loss in obese people, these drugs have already been a hot healthcare technology in 2023. Novo Nordisk A/S, the maker of Ozempic & Wegony has been the main contributor to Denmark's GDP growth of last year.- The amount of dollars from coming into Denmark from the company's sales of Wegovy and Ozempic, has forced Denmark's central bank to lower interest rates in order to keep the value of Krone from rising too much against the Euro.

Thy hype all boils down to one question:

"What if 70% of Americans were not obese anymore, would have less appetite and experience proportionally less of the detrimental health consequences?"

If you work at any company which has the human craving for sugar or fat at its core: You should be thinking about diversification right now! Airline profits would soar further - one of their 3 biggest cost factors for airlines is kerosene. It's consumption is largely determined by weight carried and this is going to be heavily impacted.

Imagine the impact on the overall economy... Right now obesity-related illnesses cost Americans more than a trillion dollars a year. Globally this figure is projected to reach 4 trillion dollars within the next decade.

It does not end with obesity

Also outside of weight loss, there are strong indicators that GLP-1s are effective in diminishing addictions and cravings for things like alcohol, drugs or gambling. The drug triggers the pancreas to release a hormone called glucagonlike peptide–1, which the organ normally produces in response to food (see above). Recent evidence suggests that GLP-1 acts on other organ systems as well, including the brain. It’s still unclear whether the hormone made in the pancreas enters the brain or if the effect is linked to GLP-1 made in the brain. Either way, the hormone seems to affect the brain’s reward pathways and to lower the dopamine levels that make food pleasurable. Dopamine also plays a major role in addiction.

Right now the list price of Wegovy is $1,349.02 per package, which breaks down to $269.80 per week or $16,188.24 per year. But as Novo Nordisk, Eli Lilly and all other makers of GLP-1s increase their production, prices will come down and a massive ripple effect will be felt in large parts of the economy.

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We will look back at this prediction in January of 2025 to see how well we did. What are your predictions for healthcare technology in 2024?

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